Long-term Agricultural Baseline Projections TablesEntry ID: USDA0323
Abstract: The "Long-term Agricultural Baseline Projections Tables" report
provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector
through 2005 that incorporate provisions of the Federal Agriculture
Inmprovement and Reform Act of 1996 (1996 Farm Act). The baseline
assumes that the new farm legislation remains in effect through
2005. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade,
... and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food
prices. Generally favorable global economic growth is projected in the
baseline which, combined with liberalized trade associated with both
the GATT agreement and unilateral policy reforms, supports strong
growth in global trade and U.S. agricultural exports. Greater market
orientation in the domestic agricultural sector under the 1996 Farm
Act puts U.S. farmers in a favorable position for competing in the
global marketplace. A tightening of the balance between productive
capacity and demands results in rising nominal market prices,
increasing farm income, and stability in the financial condition of
the agricultural sector. However, management of risk will be important
for farmers. With the reduced role of the Government in the sector
under the 1996 Farm Act, farmers in general face greater risk of
income volatility due to price variation, reflecting market price
variability more directly. Consumer food prices are projected to
continue a long term trend of rising less than the general inflation
rate. The baseline projections presented are one representative
scenario for the agricultural sector through the middle of the next
decade, assuming no shocks and based on specific assumptions regarding
macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international
developments. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for
discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under
different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in
October through December 1996, reflecting a composite of model results
and Judgmental analysis.
Collection Organization: World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA.
Collection Methodology: N/A
Collection Frequency: N/A
Update Characteristics: N/A
The data reside in 31 LOTUS 1-2-3 (.WK1) spreadsheet tables.
Data Center: Economic Research Service
Dissemination Media: Internet home page
File Format: ASCII, Lotus/dBase, Adobe PDF
Access Instructions: Connect to the Internet home page at the
Economic Research Service.
Electronic versions of the tables in the USDA baseline
report are available in LOTUS WK1 format at the following Internet address:
AGRICULTURE > ANIMAL COMMODITIES > DAIRY PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE > ANIMAL COMMODITIES > LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE > ANIMAL COMMODITIES > POULTRY PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE > PLANT COMMODITIES > FIELD CROP PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE > PLANT COMMODITIES > FRUIT PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE > PLANT COMMODITIES > HORTICULTURAL PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE > PLANT COMMODITIES > VEGETABLE PRODUCTS
HUMAN DIMENSIONS > ECONOMIC RESOURCES > AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION
Quality Provided as is.
Role: TECHNICAL CONTACT
Email: westcott at econ.ag.gov
USDA Economic Research Service Commercial Agriculture Division (CAD) 1301 New York Avenue, NW, Room 637B
Province or State: DC
Postal Code: 20005-4788
World Agricultural Outlook Board (USDA). February 1997.
Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2005. Prepared by the
Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Staf fReport No.
WAOB-97-1. Washington, DC : USDA. 120 p.
Creation and Review Dates
Last DIF Revision Date: 2005-01-14