[Parameters: Topic='ATMOSPHERE', Term='ATMOSPHERIC WINDS', Variable_Level_1='VORTICITY']
NASA: Declining Per Capita Agricultural Production and Climate Change Threatens Food Security in 2030Entry ID: NASA_AgriculturalProductionClimateChange2030
Abstract: Per capita agricultural production is likely to continue to decline due to population expansion, lack of investment and threats to rainfall due to climate change.
Technical Description of Image:
Figure 1: These panels describe our hybrid dynamic-statistical precipitation reformulations for eastern and southern Africa. These reformulations are based on 21st century projections of central Indian ... Ocean [0-15°S, 60-90°E] precipitation (from the blended satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (Adler et al. 2003)) and global precipitation 1st principal components. The left plot shows each location’s main growing season (M=MAM, J=JJA, S=SON, D=DJF). The right plot shows downscaled 2050 rainfall projections, expressed as a percent change in main season precipitation. IO and PC1 regression parameters are multiplied by the seasonally appropriate changes shown in Fig. 5. This produces the anticipated change in rainfall.
Figure 2: The colors on the map shows 2030 per capita production projections based on historical 1961-2007 trends. The projected yields are those based on 1961-2007 linear trend models. Annual yield trends vary significantly by region. North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Asia have seen increases of over 700 kg ha-1 annum-1. Western, Middle, and Eastern Africa, conversely, have exhibited very slow growth in yields (Table 5), with annual changes in yields of less than 110 kg ha-1 annum-1. Without accelerated agricultural development, many regions will still see very low yields in 2030. Values shown on map before and after arrows denote, respectively, the observed 2007 and projected 2030 per capita cereal production values in kg per person per year.
Credit: Molly E. Brown
Data Set Citation
Dataset Originator/Creator: Molly E. Brown
Dataset Title: Declining Per Capita Agricultural Production and Climate Change Threatens Food Security in 2030
Dataset Release Date: 2009-07
Dataset Publisher: NASAOnline Resource: http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/uploads/science/slides/200907_07_lg.jpg
Start Date: 1961-01-01Stop Date: 2007-12-31
Start Date: 2000-01-01Stop Date: 2030-12-31
C. Funk and M.E. Brown (2009) Declining Global per Capital Agricultural Capacity and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security, Food Security Journal doi: 10.1007/s12571-009-0026-y
Brown M.E. and C.C. Funk (2008) Food Security under Climate Change. Science 319 (5863): 580 - 581. DOI: 10.1126/science.1154102
Brown, M. E., B. Hintermann & N. Higgins (2009) Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa. Environmental Science and Technology, 18. in press
Creation and Review Dates
DIF Creation Date: 2010-12-08
Last DIF Revision Date: 2010-12-09