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NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

Entry ID: NWS-Weather_Fatalities

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Summary

Abstract: While it sounds counterintuitive, a warmer world produces both wetter and drier conditions. Even though total global precipitation increases, the regional and seasonal distribution of precipitation changes, and more precipitation comes in heavier rains (which can cause flooding) rather than light events. In the past century, averaged over the United States, total precipitation has increased by ... about 7 percent, while the heaviest 1 percent of rain events increased by nearly 20 percent.(Gutowski, W. J., G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. et 2008) This has been especially noteworthy in the Northeast, where the annual number of days with very heavy precipitation has increased most in the past 50 years, as shown in the adjacent figure. Flooding often occurs when heavy precipitation persists for weeks to months in large river basins. Such extended periods of heavy precipitation have also been increasing over the past century, most notably in the past two to three decades in the United States.(Kunkel, K., P. D. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. V. Douglas, D. R. Easterling, K et 2008)

Observations also show that over the past several decades, extended dry periods have become more frequent in parts of the United States, especially the Southwest and the eastern United States.(Kundzewicz, Z. W., L. J. Mata, N. W. Arnell, P. Doll, P. Dabat, B. Jimenez et 2007)(Groisman, P.Ya., and R. W. Knight et 2008) Longer periods between rainfalls, combined with higher air temperatures, dry out soils and vegetation, causing drought.

For the future, precipitation intensity is projected to increase everywhere, with the largest increases occurring in areas in which average precipitation increases the most. For example, the Midwest and Northeast, where total precipitation is expected to increase the most, would also experience the largest increases in heavy precipitation events. The number of dry days between precipitation events is also projected to increase, especially in the more arid areas. Mid-continental areas and the Southwest are particularly threatened by future drought. The magnitude of the projected changes in extremes is expected to be greater than changes in averages, and hence detectable sooner.(Hegerl, G. C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. Gillett, Y. Luo, J. A. Marengo Orsini, et 2007),(Gutowski, W. J., G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. et 2008),(Meehl, G. A., T. F. Stocker, W. D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A. T. Gaye, JM Gregory, et 2007),(Edited by B. C. Bates, Z. W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J. P. Palutikof 2008),(Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J. M. Arblaster, and G. A. Meehl 2006)

Credit: United State Global Change Research Program , Guttman, N. B., and R. G. Quayle

Multimedia Sample

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Geographic Coverage

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Spatial coordinates

N: 50.0

S: 20.0

E: -60.0

W: -130.0

Data Set Citation

Dataset Originator/Creator: Guttman, N. B., and R. G. Quayle

Dataset Title: Observed Drought Trends 1958 to 2007

Dataset Release Date: 2007

Dataset Publisher: United State Global Change Research Program

Online Resource: http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/water-resources

Temporal Coverage

Start Date: 1958-01-01

Stop Date: 2007-12-31

Location Keywords

CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Science Keywords

ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA > DROUGHT

ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES

CLIMATE INDICATORS > LAND SURFACE/AGRICULTURE INDICATORS > DROUGHT INDICES > PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX

ISO Topic Category

CLIMATOLOGY/METEOROLOGY/ATMOSPHERE

Ancillary Keywords

Climate Diagnostics

Data Center

United State Global Change Research Program

Data Center URL: http://www.globalchange.gov/

Data Center Personnel
Name: UNITED STATE GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM Phone: +1 202 223 6262 Fax: +1 202 223 3065 Contact Address: U.S. Global Change Research Program Suite 250 1717 Pennsylvania Ave City: Washington, DC Postal Code: 20006 Country: USA

Publications/References

Kunkel, K.E., P.D. Bromirski, H.E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A.V. Douglas, D.R. Easterling, K.A. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman, G.J.
Holland, T.R. Knutson, J.P. Kossin, P.D. Komar, D.H. Levinson, and R.L. Smith, 2008: Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC, pp. 35-80.

Guttman, N. B., and R. G. Quayle (1996), A Historical Perspective of U.S. Climate Divisions, 77, 2, 293-303, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 0003-0007

Groisman, P.Ya., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore (2004), Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States, trends derived from in situ observations., 5, 1, 64-85, Journal of Hydrometeorology

Gutowski, W. J., G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. Mearns, R. J. Stouffer, P. J. Webster, M. F. Wehner, and F. W. Zwiers.edited by T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple and W. L. Murray (2008), "Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes." In Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, 81-116, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C.

Kundzewicz, Z. W., L. J. Mata, N. W. Arnell, P. Doll, P. Dabat, B. Jimenez, K. A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Sen, and I. A. Shiklomanov (2007), "Freshwater Resources and Their Management." In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, edited by M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 173-210, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY

Groisman, P.Ya., and R. W. Knight (2008), "Prolonged Dry Episodes over the Conterminous United States : New Tendencies Emerging during the Last 40 Years.", 21, 9, 1850-1862

Hegerl, G. C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. Gillett, Y. Luo, J. A. Marengo Orsini, N. Nicholls, J. E. Penner, and P. A. Stott (2007), "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change." In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 663-745, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY

Meehl, G. A., T. F. Stocker, W. D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A. T. Gaye, JM Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J. M. Murphy, A. Noda et al (2007), "Global Climate Projections." In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis, edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 747-845, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY

. 79, no. 3-4 (2006): .

Creation and Review Dates

DIF Creation Date: 2011-04-14

Last DIF Revision Date: 2012-05-01

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