Abstract:
Snow, glaciers and permafrost in cold mountain areas such as the Swiss Alps are
especially sensitive to changes in environmental conditions due to their
proximity to melting conditions. In addition, mass wasting is most intensive in
those mountain areas with high relief energy. Environmental changes in high
mountain regions substantially influence the potential for glacial
... and
periglacial hazards. Ice- and moraine-dammed lakes represent a widespread
hazard potential closely related to glacier fluctuations. Magnitude and
frequency of ice avalanches from steep glaciers - in principle a normal
expression of mass exchange under such topographic conditions - are coupled
with stability conditions affected by glacier advance/retreat and, hence, with
long-term atmospheric impacts. Steep and unstable reservoirs of loose debris, a
potential source of debris flows, are often the result of glacier shrinkage. In
a similar way, changes in the stress regime due to vanishing glaciers lead to
potential destabilization of adjacent valley flanks.
Since the Alps are among the most densely populated high mountain areas in the
world, Switzerland is particularly impacted by glacial and periglacial hazards
but, on the other hand, also has an extensive and well-recognized tradition in
investigating such processes. A number of specific monitoring and modeling
studies related to single hazardous situations have been performed, mainly
based on recent catastrophes or imminent hazard situations. An urgent need
exists for area-wide modeling of glacier hazard potentials with a view to
establishing an integrated and adequate information base for planning and
detailed monitoring, but a corresponding systematic approach is, for the
present, still lacking.
The proposed project aims at closing this gap in several ways: Work Package
(WP) (1): By developing techniques for detection of glacier hazard potentials
based on optical spaceborne remote sensing data which rarely has been used to
date in Swiss glacier monitoring; multispectral analyses and multitemporal and
multiscale fusion will play a major role in this, with a special focus on
recent or upcoming high resolution sensors. WP (2): By integrating empirical
models for glacier hazard assessment into geographical information systems
(GIS) which have proven to be successful for hazard simulation but have not
been used yet for determining glacier hazard potentials; GIS modeling
especially allows for the fusion of remote sensing and elevation data for
spatial (3D) analyses. To ensure high synergy, WPs (1) and (2) will be closely
related to the ongoing SNF project "The Swiss Glacier Inventory 2000" (SWI
2000) (no. 21-54073.98) and the international project "Global Land Ice
Monitoring from Space" (GLIMS). WP (3): By applying the methods from WPs (1)
and (2), an initial attempt will be undertaken to implement an area-wide model
for integrating glacier hazard potentials of extensive regions in the Swiss
Alps following a downscaling strategy with varying resolution and accuracy
levels, both with respect to data and to models. As hazard management in
Switzerland is the domain of local and regional authorities, the proposed
project does not aim at preparing detailed local hazard maps (Gefahrenkarten),
but rather will provide new remote sensing and modeling techniques for
decision support. It should demonstrate the usefulness of these techniques for
overview mapping (Gefahrenhinweiskarten) as a basis for decision-making and for
scenario simulations in connection with climate change effects. The efforts
made in this project will contribute to handle economically complex
mathematical and physical models and represent a decision basis for the
specific need of further detailed case studies. A further outcome will be a
documentation of historical glacier catastrophes in the Swiss Alps, which will
- among others - be used for model calibration and verification.
[Summary provided by Christian Huggel, University of Zurich.]