Platforms>In Situ Land-based Platforms>GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS
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Southwestern USA Linear Regression and Neural Network Precipitation Reconstructions, NOAA/NCDC/WDC Paleoclimatology Entry ID: NOAA_NCDC_PALEO_2002-080 |
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Summary
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Abstract:
This data set consists of a comparison of the linear regression and neural network models for precipitation reconstruction from a network of tree ring chronologies. Data include the reconstructed annual precipitation for each climate division in Arizona and New Mexico from linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network (NN) models. [ABSTRACT] A 1000 year reconstruction of cool-season (November-April) precipitation was developed for each climate division in Arizona and New Mexico from a network of 19 tree-ring chronologies in the southwestern USA. Linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network (NN) models were used to identify the cool-season precipitation signal in tree rings. Using 1931-88 records, the stepwise LR model was cross-validated with a leave-one-out procedure and the NN was validated with a bootstrap technique. The final models were also independently validated using the 1896-1930 precipitation data. In most of the climate divisions, both techniques can successfully reconstruct dry and normal years, and the NN seems to capture large precipitation events and more variability better than the LR. In the 1000 year reconstructions the NN also produces more distinctive wet events and more variability, whereas the LR produces more distinctive dry events. The 1000 year reconstructed precipitation from the two models shows several sustained dry and wet periods comparable to the 1950s drought (e.g. 16th century mega drought) and to the post-1976 wet period (e.g. 1330s, 1610s). The impact of extreme periods on the environment may be stronger during sudden reversals from dry to wet, which were not uncommon throughout the millennium, such as the 1610s wet interval that followed the 16th century mega drought. The instrumental records suggest that strong dry to wet precipitation reversals in the past 1000 years might be linked to strong shifts from cold to warm El Nino-southern oscillation events and from a negative to positive Pacific decadal oscillation. |
Related URL
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Link:
VIEW PROJECT HOME PAGE
Description: International Tree Ring Data Bank Link: VIEW RELATED INFORMATION Description: Additional documentation and graphics |
Geographic Coverage
| N: 37.3 | S: 31.04 | E: -102.7 | W: -115.11 |
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Data Set Citation
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Dataset Originator/Creator:
Ni, F., T. Cavazos, M.K. Hughes, A.C. Comrie, and G. Funkhouser
Dataset Title: Southwestern USA Linear Regression and Neural Network Precipitation Reconstructions Dataset Series Name: International Tree-Ring Data Bank Dataset Release Date: November 2002 Dataset Release Place: Boulder, CO Dataset Publisher: IGBP PAGES/World Data Center Paleoclimatology Issue Identification: IGBP PAGES/WDC Paleoclimatology Contribution #2002-080 Other Citation Details: NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA Online Resource: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/ni2002/ni2002.html |
Temporal Coverage
| Start Date: 1000-01-01 |
| Stop Date: 1988-12-31 |
Paleo_Temporal_Coverage
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Paleo Start Date:
1000 ybp
Paleo Stop Date: 0 ybp Chrono Unit: |
Location Keywords
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CONTINENT
> NORTH AMERICA
> UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
> ARIZONA
CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > NEW MEXICO |
Data Resolution
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Temporal Resolution:
annual, seasonal (November-April)
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Science Keywords
| ATMOSPHERE >ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA >DROUGHT [Definition] |
| ATMOSPHERE >PRECIPITATION >PRECIPITATION AMOUNT [Definition] |
| ATMOSPHERE >PRECIPITATION >PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES [Definition] |
| PALEOCLIMATE >LAND RECORDS >TREE RINGS [Definition] |
| CLIMATE INDICATORS >ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS >TELECONNECTIONS >EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) >ENSO [Definition] |
| CLIMATE INDICATORS >ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS >TELECONNECTIONS >PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION >PDO [Definition] |
| PALEOCLIMATE >PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS >DROUGHT/PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION [Definition] |
ISO Topic Category
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CLIMATOLOGY/METEOROLOGY/ATMOSPHERE
GEOSCIENTIFIC INFORMATION |
Platform
| GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS [Information] |
Project
| IGBP >International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme [Information] |
| PAGES >Past Global Changes, IGBP [Information] |
Access Constraints
| None |
Use Constraints
| None |
Keywords
| cool-season precipitation |
| El Nino Southern Oscillation |
| ENSO |
| Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
| PDO |
| tree-ring chronologies |
| Southwestern United States |
Data Set Progress
| COMPLETE |
Originating Center
| NOAA/NCDC |
Data Center
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World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder
[Information]
Data Center URL: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ Dataset ID: Data Contribution Series #2002-080
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Distribution
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Distribution_Media:
online ftp, WWW
Distribution_Format: ascii Fees: none |
Personnel
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FENBIAO
NI Role: INVESTIGATOR Contact Address: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona City: Tucson Province or State: AZ Postal Code: 85721 Country: USA |
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TEREZA
CAVAZOS Role: INVESTIGATOR Contact Address: Department of Geography and Regional Development University of Arizona City: Tucson Province or State: AZ Postal Code: 85721 Country: USA |
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MALCOLM
K.
HUGHES Role: INVESTIGATOR Email: mhughes at ltrr.arizona.edu Contact Address: School of Natural Resources 325 Biosciences East City: Tucson Province or State: AZ Postal Code: 85721-0077 Country: USA |
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ANDREW
C.
COMRIE Role: INVESTIGATOR Contact Address: Department of Geography and Regional Development University of Arizona City: Tucson Province or State: AZ Postal Code: 85721 Country: USA |
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GARY
FUNKHOUSER Role: INVESTIGATOR Contact Address: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona City: Tucson Province or State: AZ Postal Code: 85721 Country: USA |
Creation and Review Dates
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SERF Creation Date:
2004-07-29
SERF Last Revision Date: 2009-06-02 |
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