Southwestern USA Linear Regression and Neural Network Precipitation Reconstructions, NOAA/NCDC/WDC Paleoclimatology
Entry ID: NOAA_NCDC_PALEO_2002-080

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Summary
Abstract: This data set consists of a comparison of the linear regression and
neural network models for precipitation reconstruction from a network
of tree ring chronologies. Data include the reconstructed annual
precipitation for each climate division in Arizona and New Mexico from
linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network (NN) models.

[ABSTRACT]
A 1000 year reconstruction of cool-season (November-April)
precipitation was developed for each climate division in Arizona and
New Mexico from a network of 19 tree-ring chronologies in the
southwestern USA. Linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network
(NN) models were used to identify the cool-season precipitation signal
in tree rings. Using 1931-88 records, the stepwise LR model was
cross-validated with a leave-one-out procedure and the NN was
validated with a bootstrap technique. The final models were also
independently validated using the 1896-1930 precipitation data. In
most of the climate divisions, both techniques can successfully
reconstruct dry and normal years, and the NN seems to capture large
precipitation events and more variability better than the LR. In the
1000 year reconstructions the NN also produces more distinctive wet
events and more variability, whereas the LR produces more distinctive
dry events. The 1000 year reconstructed precipitation from the two
models shows several sustained dry and wet periods comparable to the
1950s drought (e.g. 16th century mega drought) and to the post-1976
wet period (e.g. 1330s, 1610s). The impact of extreme periods on the
environment may be stronger during sudden reversals from dry to wet,
which were not uncommon throughout the millennium, such as the 1610s
wet interval that followed the 16th century mega drought. The
instrumental records suggest that strong dry to wet precipitation
reversals in the past 1000 years might be linked to strong shifts from
cold to warm El Nino-southern oscillation events and from a negative
to positive Pacific decadal oscillation.

Related URL
Link: VIEW PROJECT HOME PAGE
Description: International Tree Ring Data Bank


Link: VIEW RELATED INFORMATION
Description: Additional documentation and graphics


Geographic Coverage
 N: 37.3 S: 31.04  E: -102.7  W: -115.11

Data Set Citation
Dataset Originator/Creator: Ni, F., T. Cavazos, M.K. Hughes, A.C. Comrie, and G. Funkhouser
Dataset Title: Southwestern USA Linear Regression and Neural Network Precipitation Reconstructions
Dataset Series Name: International Tree-Ring Data Bank
Dataset Release Date: November 2002
Dataset Release Place: Boulder, CO
Dataset Publisher: IGBP PAGES/World Data Center Paleoclimatology
Issue Identification: IGBP PAGES/WDC Paleoclimatology Contribution #2002-080
Other Citation Details: NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA
Online Resource: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/ni2002/ni2002.html


Temporal Coverage
Start Date: 1000-01-01
Stop Date: 1988-12-31


Paleo_Temporal_Coverage
Paleo Start Date: 1000 ybp
Paleo Stop Date: 0 ybp
Chrono Unit:


Location Keywords
CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > ARIZONA
CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > NEW MEXICO


Data Resolution
Temporal Resolution: annual, seasonal (November-April)


Science Keywords
ATMOSPHERE >ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA >DROUGHT    [Definition]
ATMOSPHERE >PRECIPITATION >PRECIPITATION AMOUNT    [Definition]
ATMOSPHERE >PRECIPITATION >PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES    [Definition]
PALEOCLIMATE >LAND RECORDS >TREE RINGS    [Definition]
CLIMATE INDICATORS >ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS >TELECONNECTIONS >EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) >ENSO    [Definition]
CLIMATE INDICATORS >ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS >TELECONNECTIONS >PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION >PDO    [Definition]
PALEOCLIMATE >PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS >DROUGHT/PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION    [Definition]


ISO Topic Category
CLIMATOLOGY/METEOROLOGY/ATMOSPHERE
GEOSCIENTIFIC INFORMATION


Platform
GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS    [Information]


Project
IGBP >International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme    [Information]
PAGES >Past Global Changes, IGBP    [Information]


Access Constraints
None


Use Constraints
None


Keywords
cool-season precipitation
El Nino Southern Oscillation
ENSO
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PDO
tree-ring chronologies
Southwestern United States


Data Set Progress
COMPLETE


Originating Center
NOAA/NCDC


Data Center
World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder    [Information]
Data Center URL: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/
Dataset ID: Data Contribution Series #2002-080

Data Center Personnel
Name: WDC/PALEOCLIMATOLOGY, BOULDER
Phone: +1 (303) 497-6160
Fax: +1 (303) 497-6513
Email: paleo at noaa.gov
Contact Address:
World Data Center for Paleoclimatology
NOAA/NCDC Code E/GCx3
325 Broadway
City: Boulder
Province or State: CO
Postal Code: 80303
Country: USA



Distribution
Distribution_Media: online ftp, WWW
Distribution_Format: ascii
Fees: none


Personnel
FENBIAO NI
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Contact Address:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
University of Arizona
City: Tucson
Province or State: AZ
Postal Code: 85721
Country: USA


TEREZA CAVAZOS
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Contact Address:
Department of Geography and Regional Development
University of Arizona
City: Tucson
Province or State: AZ
Postal Code: 85721
Country: USA


MALCOLM K. HUGHES
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Email: mhughes at ltrr.arizona.edu
Contact Address:
School of Natural Resources
325 Biosciences East
City: Tucson
Province or State: AZ
Postal Code: 85721-0077
Country: USA


ANDREW C. COMRIE
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Contact Address:
Department of Geography and Regional Development
University of Arizona
City: Tucson
Province or State: AZ
Postal Code: 85721
Country: USA


GARY FUNKHOUSER
Role: INVESTIGATOR
Contact Address:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
University of Arizona
City: Tucson
Province or State: AZ
Postal Code: 85721
Country: USA


Publications/References
Ni, F., T. Cavazos, M.K. Hughes, A.C. Comrie, and G. Funkhouser, 2002,
Cool-season precipitation in the southwestern USA since AD 1000:
comparison of linear and nonlinear techniques for reconstruction.
International Journal of Climatology, Volume 22, Issue 13, 2002,
pp. 1645-1662.

Creation and Review Dates
DIF Creation Date: 2003-04-10
Last DIF Revision Date: 2012-08-31

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