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Real-time Forecast of Earthquake Hazard in the Next 24 Hours for California
Entry ID: CA-EQ-HZ-24
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Summary
Abstract: It is a time-dependent map giving the probability of strong shaking at any
location in California within the next 24-hours.

Scientists with the Swiss Seismological Service and the Advanced National
Seismic System (ANSS) have collaborated to develop techniques that quantify the
increased likelihood of future earthquake shaking from earthquake clusters in
California.

In this system, the probability of strong earthquake shaking (with a Modified
Mercalli Intensity of VI or greater) in the next 24 hours is calculated and
updated every hour. The system considers all the earthquakes, large and small,
that are recorded by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), the
California element of the Advanced National Seismic System. For each event, the
probability that it will be followed by an earthquake large enough to cause
strong shaking is calculated from the known behavior of aftershocks and the
possible shaking pattern predicted from historic patterns. These probabilities
apply both to aftershocks smaller than the first event and to the possibility
that the "aftershock" will be larger than the first event which will then
become a foreshock.
Related URL
Link: VIEW RELATED INFORMATION
Description: The Swiss Seismological Service's homepage.

Link: VIEW RELATED INFORMATION
Description: Southern California Earthquake Center's homepage.
Service Citation
Title: Real-time Forecast of Earthquake Hazard in the Next 24 Hours for California
Provider: Earthquake Hazards Program, USGS
URL: http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step/
Service Keywords
ENVIRONMENTAL ADVISORIES >GEOLOGICAL ADVISORIES >EARTHQUAKES   [Definition]
REFERENCE AND INFORMATION SERVICES >KNOWLEDGE/DECISION SYSTEMS   [Definition]
Science Keywords
SOLID EARTH >TECTONICS >EARTHQUAKES >EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES   [Definition]
SOLID EARTH >TECTONICS >EARTHQUAKES >EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS   [Definition]
ISO Topic Category
GEOSCIENTIFIC INFORMATION
Keywords
California
Real-time
24 hours
Swiss Seismological Service
Service Provider
Hazards & Preparedness, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geological Division, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior

Service Provider Personnel
Name: DAVID APPLEGATE
Phone: 703-648-6714
Email: applegate at usgs.gov
Contact Address:
USGS/Earthquake Hazards Program
12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, MS 905
 City: Reston
Province or State: VA
Postal Code: 20192
Country: USA
Distribution Media
Distribution_Media: Electronic/On-line
Fees: None
Personnel
TYLER B. STEVENS
Role: SERF AUTHOR
Phone: (301) 614-6898
Fax: 301-614-5268
Email: Tyler.B.Stevens at nasa.gov
Contact Address:
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Global Change Master Directory
City: Greenbelt
Province or State: MD
Postal Code: 20771
Country: USA
Creation and Review Dates
SERF Creation Date: 2005-05-19
SERF Last Revision Date: 2009-03-26
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