Asian Pacific Natural Hazards Information Network
Entry ID: PDC_APNHIN
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Abstract: Reliable forecasts of population growth and housing development at the small
area level are indispensable to informed land use planning and the timely
provision of physical infrastructure and human services. Planning agencies in a
number of Australian states have developed models to provide such forecasts but
most are relatively old and inflexible. The model currently used in South
Australia ... employs a distributive technique based on the land use method.
This project aims to improve the analytic foundation of the current South
Australian model, thereby enhancing its utility and performance, by placing the
model in a GIS framework. The key objectives of this approach are:
-to enable incorporation of spatial referencing techniques, such as
adjacency and accessibility, as part of the equations that determine the
likelihood that a particular parcel of land will be developed; and
-to provide an interface that allows users to explore alternative patterns
of urban development.
Other advantages of adapting the small area forecasting model into a GIS
environment are being pursued simultaneously as part of the Centre research
program, and within DTUPA. These include:
-facilitating the assembly of input data on the characteristics of land
and housing from the South Australian Valuation File (the property register)
and Census sources; and
-developing tools to enhance visualization of forecast results.
[Summary provided by the University of Adelaide.]
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