Abstract:
Predictions of auroral activity since 1994 have been based on the repetitive nature of solar disturbances during approximately four years of minimum solar activity. Solar activity began to increase in 1998, however, and stronger effects are felt due to sporadic solar activity, which cannot be predicted on the longer term. Therefore, we have changed our forecast format in keeping with more active
... and less predictable solar activity. The predictions are now mainly based on interpretations of satellite observations of active structures on the sun and of the solar wind between the sun and the earth.
These forecasts are updated each day by 3 PM Alaska Time, and are valid for that night and the following two nights. Note that 3 PM Alaska Time is midnight in Universal Time (UT) or Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The forecasts may be updated at any time as new information on solar activity is acquired.
(http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast) 
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