Declining Per Capita Agricultural Production and Climate Change Threatens Food Security in 2030

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Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Molly E. Brown
Publication_Date: 200907
Title: Declining Per Capita Agricultural Production and Climate Change Threatens Food Security in 2030
Edition:
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form:
Series_Information:
Series_Name:
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Publication_Information:
Publication_Place:
Publisher: NASA
Other_Citation_Details:
Online_Linkage: http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/uploads/science/slides/200907_07_lg.jpg
Description:
Abstract:
Per capita agricultural production is likely to continue to decline due to population expansion, lack of investment and threats to rainfall due to climate change. Technical Description of Image: Figure 1: These panels describe our hybrid dynamic-statistical precipitation reformulations for eastern and southern Africa. These reformulations are based on 21st century projections of central Indian Ocean [0-15°S, 60-90°E] precipitation (from the blended satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (Adler et al. 2003)) and global precipitation 1st principal components. The left plot shows each location’s main growing season (M=MAM, J=JJA, S=SON, D=DJF). The right plot shows downscaled 2050 rainfall projections, expressed as a percent change in main season precipitation. IO and PC1 regression parameters are multiplied by the seasonally appropriate changes shown in Fig. 5. This produces the anticipated change in rainfall. Figure 2: The colors on the map shows 2030 per capita production projections based on historical 1961-2007 trends. The projected yields are those based on 1961-2007 linear trend models. Annual yield trends vary significantly by region. North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Asia have seen increases of over 700 kg ha-1 annum-1. Western, Middle, and Eastern Africa, conversely, have exhibited very slow growth in yields (Table 5), with annual changes in yields of less than 110 kg ha-1 annum-1. Without accelerated agricultural development, many regions will still see very low yields in 2030. Values shown on map before and after arrows denote, respectively, the observed 2007 and projected 2030 per capita cereal production values in kg per person per year. Credit: Molly E. Brown
Purpose:
Not Available
Supplemental_Information:
REFERENCE: C. Funk and M.E. Brown (2009) Declining Global per Capital Agricultural Capacity and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security, Food Security Journal doi: 10.1007/s12571-009-0026-y C. Funk and M.E. Brown 2009 Declining Global per Capital Agricultural Capacity and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security Food Security Journal 10.1007/s12571-009-0026-y
Supplemental_Information:
REFERENCE: Brown M.E. and C.C. Funk (2008) Food Security under Climate Change. Science 319 (5863): 580 - 581. DOI: 10.1126/science.1154102 Brown M.E. and C.C. Funk 2008 Food Security under Climate Change. 319 5863 Science 580 - 581 10.1126/science.1154102
Supplemental_Information:
REFERENCE: Brown, M. E., B. Hintermann & N. Higgins (2009) Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa. Environmental Science and Technology, 18. in press Brown, M. E., B. Hintermann & N. Higgins 2009 Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa. 18 Environmental Science and Technology
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Beginning_Date: 19610101
Ending_Date: 20071231
Currentness_Reference:Unknown
Time_Period_of_Content:
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Beginning_Date: 20000101
Ending_Date: 20301231
Currentness_Reference:Unknown
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Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: As needed
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Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD PLATFORM
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD INSTRUMENT
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ANCILLARY KEYWORDS
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO TOPIC CATEGORY
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > AGRICULTURAL PLANT SCIENCE > CROP/PLANT YIELDS
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > PLANT COMMODITIES > FIELD CROP PRODUCTS
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > RAIN
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION
Theme_Keyword: TRMM > TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
Theme_Keyword: PR > TRMM PRECIPITATION RADAR
Theme_Keyword: Climate Diagnostics
Theme_Keyword: Nasa Code 610
Theme_Keyword: FARMING
Theme_Keyword: CLIMATOLOGY/METEOROLOGY/ATMOSPHERE
Theme_Keyword: ECONOMY
Theme_Keyword: ENVIRONMENT
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD
Place_Keyword: CONTINENT > AFRICA
Place_Keyword: GEOGRAPHIC REGION > GLOBAL LAND
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Browse_Graphic_File_Name: http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/uploads/science/slides/200907_07_lg.jpg
Browse_Graphic_File_Description:
Browse_Graphic_File_Type: JPEG
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Logical_Consistency_Report:
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Completeness_Report:
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Lineage:
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Process_Description:
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Process_Date: Unknown
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: NASA/GSFC/SED/ESD/HBSL/BSB > Biospheric Sciences Branch, Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Science and Exploration Directorate, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA
Contact_Person: MOLLY E. BROWN
Contact_Position: DATA CENTER CONTACT
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Code 614.4
Address: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
City: Greenbelt
State_or_Province: MD
Postal_Code: 20771
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 301-614-6616
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: molly.e.brown@nasa.gov
Resource_Description: NASA_AgriculturalProductionClimateChange2030
Distribution_Liability:
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Standard_Order_Process:
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Format_Name: Not Available
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Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name:
http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/bsb/
Access_Instructions:
DATA CENTER URL
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Fees: Not Available
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20101208
Metadata_Review_Date: 20101209
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: GCMD User Support Office
Contact_Organization: NASA Global Change Master Directory
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Not Available
City: Lanham
State_or_Province: MD
Postal_Code: 20706
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: Not Available
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: gcmduso@gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov
Metadata_Standard_Name: FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Time_Convention: local time
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