Southwestern USA Linear Regression and Neural Network Precipitation Reconstructions

Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) Metadata:


Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Ni, F., T. Cavazos, M.K. Hughes, A.C. Comrie, and G. Funkhouser
Publication_Date: November 2002
Title: Southwestern USA Linear Regression and Neural Network Precipitation Reconstructions
Edition:
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form:
Series_Information:
Series_Name: International Tree-Ring Data Bank
Issue_Identification: IGBP PAGES/WDC Paleoclimatology Contribution #2002-080
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Boulder, CO
Publisher: IGBP PAGES/World Data Center Paleoclimatology
Other_Citation_Details:
NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA
Online_Linkage: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/ni2002/ni2002.html
Description:
Abstract:
This data set consists of a comparison of the linear regression and neural network models for precipitation reconstruction from a network of tree ring chronologies. Data include the reconstructed annual precipitation for each climate division in Arizona and New Mexico from linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network (NN) models. [ABSTRACT] A 1000 year reconstruction of cool-season (November-April) precipitation was developed for each climate division in Arizona and New Mexico from a network of 19 tree-ring chronologies in the southwestern USA. Linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network (NN) models were used to identify the cool-season precipitation signal in tree rings. Using 1931-88 records, the stepwise LR model was cross-validated with a leave-one-out procedure and the NN was validated with a bootstrap technique. The final models were also independently validated using the 1896-1930 precipitation data. In most of the climate divisions, both techniques can successfully reconstruct dry and normal years, and the NN seems to capture large precipitation events and more variability better than the LR. In the 1000 year reconstructions the NN also produces more distinctive wet events and more variability, whereas the LR produces more distinctive dry events. The 1000 year reconstructed precipitation from the two models shows several sustained dry and wet periods comparable to the 1950s drought (e.g. 16th century mega drought) and to the post-1976 wet period (e.g. 1330s, 1610s). The impact of extreme periods on the environment may be stronger during sudden reversals from dry to wet, which were not uncommon throughout the millennium, such as the 1610s wet interval that followed the 16th century mega drought. The instrumental records suggest that strong dry to wet precipitation reversals in the past 1000 years might be linked to strong shifts from cold to warm El Nino-southern oscillation events and from a negative to positive Pacific decadal oscillation.
Purpose:
Not Available
Supplemental_Information:
REFERENCE: Ni, F., T. Cavazos, M.K. Hughes, A.C. Comrie, and G. Funkhouser, 2002, Cool-season precipitation in the southwestern USA since AD 1000: comparison of linear and nonlinear techniques for reconstruction. International Journal of Climatology, Volume 22, Issue 13, 2002, pp. 1645-1662.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 10000101
Ending_Date: 19881231
Currentness_Reference:Unknown
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: As needed
Spatial_Domain:
Description_of_Geographic_Extent:
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate: -115.11
East_Bounding_Coordinate: -102.7
North_Bounding_Coordinate: 37.3
South_Bounding_Coordinate: 31.04
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD SCIENCE PARAMETERS
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD PLATFORM
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: PROJECT
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ANCILLARY KEYWORDS
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO TOPIC CATEGORY
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: DATA SET LANGUAGE
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA > DROUGHT
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION AMOUNT
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > PALEOCLIMATE > LAND RECORDS > TREE RINGS
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > TELECONNECTIONS > EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) > ENSO
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > TELECONNECTIONS > PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION > PDO
Theme_Keyword: EARTH SCIENCE > PALEOCLIMATE > PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS > DROUGHT/PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION
Theme_Keyword: GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS
Theme_Keyword: IGBP > INTERNATIONAL GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE PROGRAMME
Theme_Keyword: PAGES > PAST GLOBAL CHANGES, IGBP
Theme_Keyword: Cool-season Precipitation
Theme_Keyword: El Nino Southern Oscillation
Theme_Keyword: Enso
Theme_Keyword: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Theme_Keyword: Pdo
Theme_Keyword: Tree-ring Chronologies
Theme_Keyword: Southwestern United States
Theme_Keyword: CLIMATOLOGY/METEOROLOGY/ATMOSPHERE
Theme_Keyword: GEOSCIENTIFIC INFORMATION
Theme_Keyword: ENGLISH
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD
Place_Keyword: CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > ARIZONA
Place_Keyword: CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > NEW MEXICO
Temporal:
Temporal_Keyword_Thesaurus: GCMD
Temporal_Keyword: Annual, Seasonal (november-april)
Access_Constraints: None
Use_Constraints:
None
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: FENBIAO NI
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: TEREZA CAVAZOS
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: MALCOLM K. HUGHES
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: ANDREW C. COMRIE
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: GARY FUNKHOUSER
Contact_Position: INVESTIGATOR
Contact_Position: INVESTIGATOR
Contact_Position: INVESTIGATOR
Contact_Position: INVESTIGATOR
Contact_Position: INVESTIGATOR
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Address: University of Arizona
City: Tucson
State_or_Province: AZ
Postal_Code: 85721
Country: USA
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Department of Geography and Regional Development
Address: University of Arizona
City: Tucson
State_or_Province: AZ
Postal_Code: 85721
Country: USA
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: School of Natural Resources
Address: 325 Biosciences East
City: Tucson
State_or_Province: AZ
Postal_Code: 85721-0077
Country: USA
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Department of Geography and Regional Development
Address: University of Arizona
City: Tucson
State_or_Province: AZ
Postal_Code: 85721
Country: USA
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Address: University of Arizona
City: Tucson
State_or_Province: AZ
Postal_Code: 85721
Country: USA
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu
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Data_Quality_Information:
Attribute_Accuracy:
Attribute_Accuracy_Report:
Not Available
Logical_Consistency_Report:
Not Available
Completeness_Report:
Not Available
Lineage:
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
Not Available
Process_Date: Unknown
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Spatial_Reference_Information:
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: WDC/PALEOCLIMATOLOGY, BOULDER > World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder
Contact_Person: WDC/PALEOCLIMATOLOGY, BOULDER
Contact_Position: DATA CENTER CONTACT
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology
Address: NOAA/NCDC Code E/GCx3
Address: 325 Broadway
City: Boulder
State_or_Province: CO
Postal_Code: 80303
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: +1 (303) 497-6160
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: +1 (303) 497-6513
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: paleo@noaa.gov
Resource_Description: Data Contribution Series #2002-080
Distribution_Liability:
Not Available
Standard_Order_Process:
Digital_Form:
Digital_Transfer_Information:
Format_Name: ascii
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/
Access_Instructions:
DATA CENTER URL
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html
Access_Instructions:
International Tree Ring Data Bank
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/ni2002/ni2002....
Access_Instructions:
Additional documentation and graphics
Fees: None
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20030410
Metadata_Review_Date: 20120831
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: GCMD User Support Office
Contact_Organization: NASA Global Change Master Directory
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: Mailing and Physical Address
Address: Not Available
City: Lanham
State_or_Province: MD
Postal_Code: 20706
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: Not Available
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: gcmduso@gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov
Metadata_Standard_Name: FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Time_Convention: local time
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